Putin

cardboardbox?Youwerelucky · Putin

Anyone else feeling a little bit nervous about Putins increasingly erractic behaviour

There was a time when he seemed to be the most rational Russia leader we had had in decades - but recently he has been making more and more noises against the west (and not surprisingly) America.

President Vladimir Putin signed a law suspending Russia's participation in the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe.

After Russia was not willing to support the US missile defense plans in Europe, Putin threatened a "moratorium" on the treaty in his April 26, 2007 address, and then raised most of its demands for rewriting the treaty during the Extraordinary Conference of States Parties to the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, held in Vienna on June 11-15 at Russia’s initiative.[11] As his demands were not met during this conference, Putin issued a decree intended to suspend the observance of its treaty obligations on July 14, 2007, effective 150 days later, stating that it was the result of "extraordinary circumstances (...) which affect the security of the Russian Federation and require immediate measures," and notified NATO and its members.[12][13] The suspension applies to the original CFE treaty, as well as to the follow-up agreements.[11]

[edit] Motives
An explanatory document from Russia’s presidential administration mentions several reasons for its intention to suspend compliance.[11] First of all, Russia considers the linkage between the adapted treaty ratification and the withdrawal of troops from Georgia and Moldova as "illegitimate" and "invented". Russia also considers the troop-withdrawal issue a bilateral Russia-Georgia and Russia-Moldova issue, not a NATO-Russia issue. Secondly, the three Baltic states, which border Russia unlike the rest of NATO (excluding Poland and Norway), are not covered under the original CFE treaty as they were still part of the Soviet Union when the treaty was signed.[11] Also, the Baltic states like all NATO members did not ratify the adapted CFE treaty. Russia's wish for a speedy ratification and accession of the Baltic states to a ratified treaty, hoping to restrict emergency deployments of NATO forces there, was not fulfilled.

Thirdly, Russia emphasized that NATO's 1999 and 2004 enlargements increased the alliance's equipment above the treaty limits.[11] Consequently, Russia demands a "compensatory lowering" of overall NATO numerical ceilings on such equipment. Fourthly, Russia mentioned that the planned basing of U.S. military units in Romania and Bulgaria "negatively affects" those countries’ compliance with the CFE Treaty’s force ceilings.[11] Fifthly, the document demands a "removal" of the flank (i.e. North Caucasian) ceilings on Russian forces by a "political decision" between NATO and Russia, ostensibly to "compensate" Russia for the alliance’s enlargement.[11] Sixthly, Russia wants to re-negotiate and "modernize" the 1999-adapted CFE treaty as soon as it is brought into force.[11] Russia would proceed unilaterally to suspend the treaty’s validity unless NATO countries bring it into force by July 1, 2008, or at least comply with its terms on a temporary basis, pending the treaty’s re-negotiation.

Most likely, but not mentioned in Russia's explanatory document, the above mentioned "extraordinary circumstances" are also a referral to the US plans to base parts of a missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.[14] [15] Another likely reason is that NATO members refused to ratify the Adapted CFE Treaty due to the continuing presence of Russian troops on Moldovan and Georgian soil - something they consider to violate the obligations Russia assumed during the 1999 Istanbul summit.[14] However, there is no legal connection between the Adapted CFE treaty and the Russian withdrawal from Georgia and Moldova. The linkage between these two security issues was a decision made by NATO member states to protest against the Second Chechen War.[16] Russia never accepted this decision - a decision which was also made 6 months after the Istanbul summit.[16] Russia also considered the original CFE treaty to be outdated and strategically flawed as it does not take into account the dissolutions of the Warsaw Pact or the Soviet Union.[17][18]

Vladimir Ryzhkov, a Russian democratic opposition leader and an independent member of the Duma agrees that Russia was forced to respond, but he thinks that Putin's suspension by decree is "primarily an election-year message to the country: "Your leader won't budge, no matter who formally becomes next President"."[13]

[edit] Reactions
NATO expressed regret over Russia's decision to suspend the treaty, describing it as "a step in the wrong direction", but hoped to engage Moscow in constructive talks on this issue.[19] The United States along with several European states such as Germany, Poland and Romania also expressed their disappointment.[20] Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) General Secretary Nikolai Bordyuzha and former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev expressed support for Putin's decree.[21]

[edit] Consequences
Russia hoped that the suspension would spur ratifications of the adapted treaty by NATO countries.[22] Russia emphasized that the moratorium does not mean that the door is closed to further dialogue. In the event that the mentioned issues should be settled, Russia stated that it would promptly ensure collective observance of the treaty provisions.[23]

The Russian Foreign Ministry said that the consequences of the suspension are the halting of inspections and verifications of its military sites by NATO countries and that it will no longer have the obligation to limit the number of its conventional weapons.[13] In practice, Russia already halted such verification visits in June 2007 after an extraordinary CFE treaty conference held in Vienna turned a deaf ear to Russia's complaints.[24] Consequently, military delegations from Bulgaria and Hungary had been denied entry to Russian military units.

Yuri Zarakhovich reported in Time that there is speculation that the above mentioned "immediate measures" will be a build-up of its forces in areas bordering NATO eastern members, in particular Poland and the Baltic states.[13] Time further speculates that other measures could include troop buildups along southern borders in the Caucasus, new pressures on Ukraine to maintain the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea beyond the 2017 withdrawal deadline, and a refusal to leave Moldova.

He also said this yesterday

November 20, 2007, Defence Ministry, Moscow
“We see that some members of the NATO alliance are building up their military potential close to our borders in violation of previous agreements. At the same time, Russian proposals are left, unfortunately, without response. Of course, we cannot remain indifferent to what is a clear case of muscle-flexing.”

Opening Remarks at the Meeting with the Armed Forces Senior Command

Is it all just posturing or will we see another Cuban Missile crisis in reverse?

halfaperson

Short answer yes Laughing

. Will read it over a cuppa. looks like an interesting post

wewantourdarbyback

havent read it yet (will do later) but Putins actions are scarey, hopefully it is just him posturing before he has to step down next year, although the fact that he said he would stand for election as prime minister 'as long as there was someone i could work with in charge' tells me he wants to become the next Stalinist leader of the USSR

nlag

Not sure I fully understand what is going on here. Seems to me there is a situation regarding 1) Troops positioning and previous agreements to the contrary, and 2) US plans to place missile defence systems in Eastern states? and 3) the fact that Putin's political term as president effectively ends in the soon to be held elections.

I have to simplify things because that is the only way I can get to try and understand complex situations....Taking point 3 first, my uneducated understanding of this is that Putin cannot stand for election as President because he has served full term. But he has intentions to effectively hold onto power by supporting a puppet President, whilst he remains active and pivotal in the role of PM?

With regard point 2. Is this not as much a matter of Bush rattling the sabre, as it is Putin? Putin's argument being that the rogue state (Iran) does not have the technology to deliver long range weapons, and Putin claiming it is a breach of earlier NATO agreements, and a proposal that potentially poses a military threat to Russia, right on its border.

Re: Point 1...I think that Putin is playing the brinkmanship game. Russia signed up to certain agreements with NATO. Amongst these was a staged withdrawal of troops from former states (I think) and NATO in turn agreeing that NATO troops would not be deployed in Eastern states (which they are). So NATO have done something they agreed not to, and as a result Putin is not doing something he agreed to.

My biggest concern out of all of this is that Putin, former Eastern Soviet states and China are running military exercises together. Early days in a thawing of relations perhaps, but a huge power to fear if the former Soviet Union and China get it together.

halfaperson

As far as I can see Putin in this case is just looking after his corner. He needs to show his people he is able to stand strong on the world stage. In any case NATO is getting bigger, Russia is shrinking and the missiles are getting closer to them. Cant realy blame him in this case for getting arsey.

In any case since when have treaties and agreements ever meant anything to America. Whether its global warming, carbon emissions or invasions they will always do what the frick they want. I cant help thinking that is the root cause of so many global tensions.

raveydavey

He's sabre rattling. Final year of his presidency and the Russian people want strong leadership.

When he took over from Yeltsin, Rusia was a bit of a basket case. Now largely due to it's massive oil and gas reserves things have changed just a wee bit. They're flush with cash and have a way to exert pressure on others (most of Europes gas comes from them, for instance).

We of course could have told them to f*ck off, but some bright whizz decided it would be a clever idea to use up all our North Sea gas reserves in shiny new gas fired electricity generating stations. Had we not done that we'd have had another 50-100 years worth of gas left. As it is we've got about a weeks worth.

The good news is that we have a good few hundred years worth of coal reserves left, but Thatcher abandoned all the mines and currently it's cheaper to import coal from China and ship it to Drax than it is to mine the stuff at Selby 10 miles away...

cardboardbox?Youwerelucky

raveydavey

nlag

Hmmmmm

The independent Russian monitoring group Golos reported various violations it said amounted to "an organised campaign", including:

Entering those voting for United Russia into a prize lottery, reported in St Petersburg

Transporting voters by bus between polling stations, to vote multiple times, in Moscow and St Petersburg

Opposition party observers being detained for "looking suspicious", in Samara

Voters being given ballots already filled out for United Russia, in Pestovo
However, the chairman of the Central Election Commission, Vladimir Churov, told Russian television there were "no serious violations in the course of polling day".

cardboardbox?Youwerelucky

nlag

Monitors denounce Russia election

Foreign observers have said that Russia's parliamentary election won by President Vladimir Putin's party was "not fair".
The statement was made by a joint observer team from Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe.

With nearly 98% of ballots counted, Mr Putin's United Russia had 64.1% of Sunday's vote.

Opposition claims of fraud were rejected by the electoral commission.

Sunday's election "was not fair and failed to meet many OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards for democratic elections", the observers said at a news conference in Moscow.

The statement said the polls "took place in an atmosphere which seriously limited political competition" and that "there was not a level political playing field".

The OSCE had abandoned its plans to send a big team of observers, accusing Moscow of imposing curbs and delaying visas. Russia denied the claims.

Only a much smaller group of MPs from the OSCE's parliamentary assembly had attended the election, leaving some 330 foreign monitors covering nearly 100,000 polling stations.

nlag

nlag wrote:

Monitors denounce Russia election

Foreign observers have said that Russia's parliamentary election won by President Vladimir Putin's party was "not fair".
The statement was made by a joint observer team from Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the Council of Europe.

With nearly 98% of ballots counted, Mr Putin's United Russia had 64.1% of Sunday's vote.

Opposition claims of fraud were rejected by the electoral commission.

Sunday's election "was not fair and failed to meet many OSCE and Council of Europe commitments and standards for democratic elections", the observers said at a news conference in Moscow.

The statement said the polls "took place in an atmosphere which seriously limited political competition" and that "there was not a level political playing field".

The OSCE had abandoned its plans to send a big team of observers, accusing Moscow of imposing curbs and delaying visas. Russia denied the claims.

Only a much smaller group of MPs from the OSCE's parliamentary assembly had attended the election, leaving some 330 foreign monitors covering nearly 100,000 polling stations.

Looks as though Putin is determined to hold sway by hook or by crook. Takes a brave man to cross Putin. Those that do tend to end up in exile or jail.

cardboardbox?Youwerelucky

nlag

That's your Russian visa application thwarted. Very Happy

HarryofOz

Luckily for Putin he is right-wing and anti-communist so the Americans and the West will just stand idly by and let him do as he likes.

raveydavey